Not as easily as some may think. I came across this post today on Jason Calcanis’s blog commenting about a potential reality call in the Web 2.0 market due to the credit crunch that’s threatening the economy right now. I disagree, and wanted to expand on a couple of points that I feel justify my opinion.
1) Credit crunches and economic slowdown inevitably result in less consumer spending. This means that less is spent on entertainment or going out, and any remaining luxury spending is qualified a hell of a lot more, resulting in more consumer research and less impulse buying. Not so good for Walmart, but IMHO a potential short term boon for the Internet. With over 90% of Internet users increasing the efficiency of their spending by researching products online, this will definitely benefit quite a few Web 2.0 startups.
(Disclaimer: Not only am I a founder of an Internet Startup, but our startup is dedicated to helping consumer’s research purchases online)
2) He states “The stock market correction is going to have an impact on advertising…”, implying a negative effect for the Internet ad industry. My experience is that businesses that see a downturn in sales tend to get more aggressive with their marketing tactics to find those consumers that are still spending in the short term. This means that even though they may start to cut ad spending, a need to increase efficiency with their remaining marketing budgets will inevitably lead them to focus on one of the most highly measurable and effective advertising verticals… Internet Advertising. More consumers spending time online combined with more advertising dollars being spent to capture a decreasing revenue stream in a more measurable way, to me equals enough of a boon for Web 2.0 companies to offset any consumer negatives in spending.
He closes off his article speaking to the pains and scars he received from the bubble. I can tell you I personally have a few of those myself, but even with the fear built from the last explosion, the one thing I take away from the trending downturn is that things aren’t the same as when the bubble burst. Instead of tech companies leading the charge down that rolling bear of a hill, this time we’re a bystander and actually in a pretty good position to see some insulation from any shakiness in the market.